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Polls and Overconfidence in Election Outcomes

My piece on the shock of the 2016 election results is up at the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog. There’s a lot that was edited out for space, and I’ll save most of that for a lengthier treatment on this subject at a later date, ideally once the 2016 ANES data is available. The main takeaway concerns … Continue reading

From the annals of $75 billion origin stories

Jenny 8. Lee tweeted earlier today about Harvard’s prehistoric efforts to develop a virtual “facebook” in the mid-90s. The blog post she links to is somewhat interesting, somewhat tedious—although as former Dean of Harvard College Harry Lewis explains, his intention in publishing the emails is to bolster the “historical record,” not because the content of the … Continue reading

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