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Polls and Overconfidence in Election Outcomes

Polls and Overconfidence in Election Outcomes

My piece on the shock of the 2016 election results is up at the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog. There’s a lot that was edited out for space, and I’ll save most of that for a lengthier treatment on this subject at a later date, ideally once the 2016 ANES data is available. The main takeaway concerns … Continue reading